New Delhi, Nov 3 (IANS) Months ahead of next year’s Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, the Opposition bloc, led by the Samajwadi Party (SP), is riding high on the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha and recent Legislative Council polls in the state, along with protests against the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) making headlines – whether good or bad – especially in New Delhi.
Yet, beneath the optimism lies the familiar challenge of the seat-sharing equation that may undermine the Opposition coalition.
Before celebrating momentum or projecting confidence, the bloc needs to resolve the difficult arithmetic of alliance management that still lingers, with public spats erupting intermittently.
The SP’s performance in 2024, which propped up the Opposition, altered the political narrative in the state, with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) losing over two dozen seats compared to its 2019 result.
The results of recent MLC elections to 11 graduate and teachers’ constituency seats in the state dealt another setback to the BJP in its strongholds of Varanasi and Lucknow, while Gorakhpur witnessed a close contest.
In the Lok Sabha election, the SP and Congress managed to strike a workable arrangement that minimised vote splitting. The outcome surprised many observers.
Seat-sharing negotiations for Assembly elections are, however, more complex, where every district leader, regional satrap and aspiring candidate has a stake. Such complications were palpable before the Bihar Assembly election last year, where the Opposition platform fared poorly compared to the previous state poll. Like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, the SP in Uttar Pradesh is the largest and most prominent constituent in the Opposition alliance, where both emerged as the principal Opposition party in their respective states.
With expectations naturally high, party cadres believe their performance entitles them to contest a large majority of Assembly constituencies where the Congress and others in the coalition are sometimes left unsatisfied in terms of seat share.
While every party boasts of better performance and demands a larger share of seats, real electoral success remains the key, with electoral data, caste and religion, organisational strength, and candidate viability determining seat allocation.
In earlier instances, Opposition alliances have stumbled on several occasions because seat-sharing talks became prolonged and acrimonious. Disputes over constituencies have led to rebel candidates, weak campaign coordination and voter confusion. Even when alliances were formally announced, grassroots workers frequently remained unconvinced, reducing the effectiveness of coalition-building efforts.
The “UP ke ladke” campaign was launched during the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election to showcase the alliance between Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav as a youthful alternative to the BJP.
Accompanied by the slogan “UP ko yeh saath pasand hai”, the campaign highlighted their joint leadership and sought to attract young voters.
However, the alliance failed to gain electoral traction, and the BJP won a landslide victory with 312 seats, while the SP and Congress were reduced to 47 and just seven, respectively.
Another reason seat sharing demands urgent attention is planning and preparing manoeuvres, which is an essential component at today’s hustings.
Candidates need time to build local campaigns and prepare poll material like posters, billboards, and advertisements. They also need to mobilise volunteers and communicate with voters. Delayed negotiations leave candidates uncertain, wasting precious time.
The BJP, by contrast, is always in “election mode”, as has repeatedly been witnessed. It also benefits when rivals become preoccupied with internal bargaining.
A divided Opposition allows the ruling party to consolidate its core vote base while portraying itself as the only stable alternative. This has been one of the BJP’s enduring strengths in Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere.
–IANS
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