Vadodara, July 4 (IANS) The announcement of the Manjalpur Assembly bye-election has set the stage for the first major electoral contest in Gujarat since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s sweeping performance in the state’s local body elections, with recent electoral trends placing the ruling party in a strong position to retain the Vadodara seat while the Congress prepares to challenge it and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is yet to decide whether to enter the fray.

The Election Commission on Thursday announced that polling for the Manjalpur Assembly bye-election will be held on July 30, with counting scheduled for August 3.

The seat fell vacant following the death of senior BJP MLA Yogesh Patel, who had represented the constituency for multiple terms. The BJP heads into the contest on the back of an emphatic mandate in Gujarat’s local body elections held in April.

The party won all 15 municipal corporations, 78 of the state’s 84 municipalities, 33 of the 34 district panchayats and 220 of the 260 taluka panchayats, showcasing its organisational dominance ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections.

Across the local body polls, the BJP secured nearly 60 per cent of the vote in the municipal corporations and won 894 seats, while the Congress finished a distant second with 95 seats and the AAP was reduced to just six seats after suffering heavy losses compared with its previous performance.

The results in Vadodara reflected a similar trend. The BJP retained control of the Vadodara Municipal Corporation by winning 69 of the 76 seats.

The Congress managed six seats, while one seat went to another candidate. The AAP failed to win a single seat in the corporation, underlining the challenges it faces in rebuilding its organisation in the city.

Another recent electoral indicator came from the Umreth Assembly bypoll held in May. BJP candidate Harshad Govind Parmar won the seat with 85,500 votes, defeating Congress candidate Bhrugurajsinh Chauhan, who secured 54,757 votes.

The BJP’s victory margin stood at 30,743 votes. The AAP did not field a candidate in the contest, leaving the Congress as the principal Opposition challenger.

Against this backdrop, the Congress insists it will mount a serious challenge in Manjalpur. Congress spokesperson Dr Manish Doshi told IANS that the party would contest the election vigorously and field “a strong candidate who is acceptable to everyone and who can truly represent the people”.

“The Congress would focus on local issues. The BJP government had failed to address the concerns of Vadodara residents,” he said.

Referring to the city’s educational heritage, Doshi claimed that the Maharaja Sayajirao University had “lost its identity” under successive BJP governments.

He also criticised the city’s civic infrastructure, saying that the Smart City had become “a city of potholes” with inadequate rainwater drainage and deteriorating urban development.

On candidate selection, Doshi said: “Consultations would first be held with the local leadership and the Vadodara City Congress Committee before the matter is placed before the state and national leadership, with the party’s Parliamentary Board taking the final decision.”

The BJP, however, expressed confidence that it would comfortably retain the constituency. Party spokesperson Dr Anil Patel told IANS that the BJP’s campaign would be built on its organisational strength, welfare schemes and public outreach programmes.

“The people of Manjalpur have witnessed the work and long years of service of Yogeshbhai,” he said, adding that the goodwill generated by the late MLA, together with the strength of the party organisation and the “triple-engine government”, would help the BJP reach every voter.

Asked whether the party expected a result similar to the Umreth bye-election, Patel replied: “The BJP’s organisational efforts and government welfare schemes gave it complete confidence of winning by a substantial margin.”

He dismissed suggestions that a third front could influence the outcome, saying “the BJP contests every election on its own strength and does not depend on who is in the Opposition”.

On speculation surrounding caste equations, Patel said the BJP “does not believe in caste politics” and that it contests elections across Gujarat on the strength of its symbol and governance record.

The AAP heads into the Manjalpur bye-election amid organisational uncertainty in Vadodara following a series of developments involving its local leadership.

The party’s city unit suffered a setback after Vadodara city president Ashok Oza was arrested last month in connection with a rape, blackmail and criminal intimidation case.

Earlier, he had also been booked in a separate case over allegations of impersonating an Intelligence Bureau (IB) officer as part of an alleged conspiracy to intimidate a party worker.

The developments triggered a reorganisation of the party’s city unit. Party sources told IANS that the AAP is currently unlikely to field a candidate in the Manjalpur bye-election, citing the weakened state of its organisation in Vadodara after the controversy.

“The party leadership is weighing the electoral prospects before taking a final call, with a decision expected after internal consultations,” a party source said.

The party, however, has maintained that no decision has been taken yet. Chief spokesperson Dr Karan Barot told IANS that an internal meeting was being held to finalise the party’s strategy for the bypoll and that its decision would be announced afterwards.

Rejecting suggestions that the AAP’s organisational weakness could keep it out of the contest, Barot said: “The party had completely reorganised its Gujarat organisation. New office-bearers had been appointed at various organisational levels, while appointments to the farmers’ and youth wings also made.”

He added that recent public programmes in Surendranagar and Dediapada, for the jailed party MLA Chaitar Vasava, reflected growing public participation.

With the Congress preparing to announce its candidate, the BJP expressing confidence of another victory and the AAP yet to decide whether to enter the contest, the Manjalpur bypoll is expected to test whether the Opposition can reverse the electoral setbacks it suffered in both the recent Gujarat local body elections and the Umreth Assembly bypoll, or whether the BJP can extend the momentum that has defined its recent electoral performances in the state.

–IANS

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